Analysis of Elon Musk's X Post (January 2, 2026)Elon Musk quoted a post by Kevin Bass (@kevinnbass

) featuring a map of U.S. states, claiming: "States with no effective voter ID requirement average nearly 8x more welfare benefits to illegal immigrants compared to states requiring voter ID verification. They are importing and paying illegals for votes."Musk responded: "Yes, it is the biggest crime in American history."The Map and ClaimThe map in Bass's post categorizes states by the number of state-funded welfare benefits (e.g., health coverage, food assistance, cash aid, tax credits) provided to undocumented immigrants beyond federal programs. Examples:States like California and New York offer up to 4 types.

Others (e.g., Texas) offer fewer (around 2).

The claim links this to voter ID laws: states without "strict" or "effective" voter ID allegedly provide ~8 times more such benefits.


This implies a deliberate strategy to attract migrants for voting purposes.Key Facts on Undocumented Immigrants and BenefitsFederal restrictions: Undocumented immigrants are generally ineligible for major federal programs (e.g., SNAP/food stamps, regular Medicaid, TANF cash aid, SSI). Exceptions include emergency Medicaid, school lunches/WIC for U.S.-born children, and public education.

State-funded programs: About 14+ states (e.g., California, New York, Illinois) use state funds to extend benefits like Medicaid or health coverage to undocumented adults/children. This varies widely—mostly Democratic-leaning states.

Sources confirming state variations:Center for Immigration Studies (CIS, restrictionist-leaning): Notes higher welfare use in immigrant households, partly due to state programs and U.S.-born children.

Cato Institute (libertarian-leaning): Finds immigrants overall consume less welfare per capita than natives, but acknowledges state expansions.

The correlation exists: States with looser voter ID laws (often blue/Democratic) tend to offer more state-funded benefits to undocumented immigrants.Voter ID Laws (as of 2025)36 states require some form of ID to vote.

~24 require photo ID (strict in many cases).

14 states + D.C. have no ID requirement or very lenient ones (e.g., California, New York, Illinois—many overlapping with generous state benefits).

Strict photo ID states include Georgia, Texas, Florida (often red/Republican).


There is a partisan divide: Democratic states tend to have weaker voter ID rules and more immigrant-friendly policies.The Core Allegation: "Importing Votes"No evidence of causation for voting: Undocumented immigrants cannot legally vote in federal or state elections. Noncitizen voting is rare (e.g., Heritage Foundation database shows only handfuls of cases over decades; most involve legal immigrants mistakenly voting).

Fact checks (Brennan Center, Reuters, NPR): Noncitizen voting is negligible (0.0001% or less in audited elections). Penalties are severe: fines, prison, deportation.

Benefits may act as a "pull factor" for migration, but linking it directly to electoral fraud lacks substantiation. The "8x" average appears derived from Bass's data crunching, but independent verification is limited—no major think tank has replicated this exact claim.


Political ContextThe post taps into ongoing debates:Republican views (e.g., CIS reports): State benefits burden taxpayers and incentivize illegal immigration.

Democratic/libertarian views (e.g., Cato): Immigrants contribute economically and use fewer benefits overall; state programs address humanitarian needs.


In summary, there is a clear correlation between states with lenient voter ID laws and those offering more state-funded benefits to undocumented immigrants, driven by partisan differences. However, the accusation of "importing voters" is unsubstantiated—undocumented immigrants do not vote in meaningful numbers, and no direct evidence supports a coordinated vote-buying scheme.en.wikipedia.org


tucson.com

(Note: These images show U.S. state maps related to welfare, immigration policies, or highlighted states like California—similar in style to the one in the original post.)