The Visegrád 24 post highlights mass anti-regime protests in Abdanan, a city in western Iran (Ilam Province), where police officers were filmed applauding and waving to demonstrators from the rooftop of a police station—a rare sign of sympathy or potential cracks in regime loyalty.This footage, from January 6, 2026, shows large nighttime crowds marching peacefully while chanting anti-regime slogans. It is part of a broader wave of nationwide protests that began on December 28, 2025, initially sparked by economic grievances: inflation exceeding 40-50%, a collapsing rial (losing over half its value in the past year), soaring food prices, and energy shortages.Key context on the ongoing protests (as of January 6, 2026):Demonstrations have spread to over 100 cities across most provinces, involving merchants, students, and diverse groups.

Human rights groups report at least 25-35 deaths (including children), hundreds injured, and over 1,200 arrests amid clashes and security force crackdowns (e.g., live fire, tear gas raids on hospitals).

Slogans have evolved from economic demands to political ones, including "Death to the Dictator" (targeting Supreme Leader Khamenei) and echoes of the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement.

The regime has shifted to harsher tactics after initially tolerating some "legitimate" protests, with Khamenei distinguishing "protesters" from "rioters" who must be suppressed.

Unverified reports suggest isolated police sympathy in places like Abdanan and Ilam, but no widespread defections yet.

International factors: US President Trump has warned of intervention if lethal force continues; Israeli intelligence claims Khamenei has an escape plan to Russia.


Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket) estimate low short-term odds of regime collapse: ~5% by end of January 2026, reflecting skepticism despite the unrest's scale—the largest since 2022.These protests reflect deep accumulated frustrations with economic mismanagement, sanctions, and authoritarian rule, but the regime has survived similar waves before through repression. The situation remains fluid and volatile.